中国城市化与生态环境耦合规律与实证分析

Analysis of Coupling Rule between Urbanization and Eco-environment and Positive Test of China

本文在阐明城市化与生态环境交互耦合含义的基础上,利用城市化的S型生长曲线和生态环境演变的倒U型曲线,演绎出城市化与生态环境耦合的规律曲线,并以中国的实际数据为例,进行实证分析。研究表明:(1)生态环境随城市化发展呈现出着先恶化、后改善的不规则倒U型耦合规律,但该规律曲线只是它们实际耦合的一种演变趋势;(2)1985～2005年间,中国工业废水排放量与城市化水平耦合表现出先倒U型和后U型的阶段特征,而这种特征曲线正是技术进步、产业结构高级化、人们环保意识的增强以及经济增长的压力等因素综合作用的结果。

Based on the annotation of coupling between urbanization and eco-environment, the rule curve has been deduced by combining ＂S＂ curve of urbanization growth and inverse ＂U＂ curve of coo-environment changing, and the coupling rules of China been tested and the causes been explained. The results show： firstly, the coupling relationship between urbanization and coo-environment takes on an irregular inverse ＂U＂- shaped changing law if the time is enough long and the space is enough vast, in which eco-environment decays with urbanization development at first, and then ameliorates after the curve inflexion, but it is only an evolution tendency of its empirical coupling; secondly, the coupling curve takes on inverse ＂U＂-shaped from 1985 to 1995, but ＂U＂-shaped from 1996-2005, which resulted from integrative actions including technological improvement, industrial structural transforming, people environmental protecting demand increasing and economic growth pressure, etc..