石油价格冲击对美中日经济非线性影响的比较研究

Compared Research on Nonlinear Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economy of US,China and Japan

在Charlesl Weise设计的LSTVAR模型和T-O-O网格点搜索法基础上,分析了油价冲击对美国、中国、日本经济波动的非线性影响,估计了各国LSTVAR模型的门槛参数,发现三国经济对油价冲击的忍耐度依次为中国、美国、日本。利用脉冲响应函数(IRF)分析了石油价格冲击对三国经济波动的反应及对我国的启示。

Based on the LSTVAR model developed by Charlesl Weise and T-O-O grids search method,this paper analyzes nonlinear effects of oil price shocks on economy fluctuation of US, China and Japan. We estimate the threshold variables in the model and find that the highest threshold level is found in China, followed by the US and Japan. Using impulse response function analyzes response of oil price shocks to economy fluctuation of US, China and Japan and gives some suggestions to the economy in China.