空中机动目标航路预测模型

Research on the Forecasting Model of the Track of Air Manoeuvring Target

由于信息对抗,警戒雷达丢失已探测到的空中来袭目标时常发生,准确预测出空中机动目标航路,是防空指挥员实施正确指挥的重要依据。在分别描述了GM(1,1)灰色预测模型和Verhulst灰色预测模型的基础上,根据空中机动目标的已测坐标(样本量)的基本状态,提出了综合运用两种灰色预测模型对空中机动目标航路预测的新方法,并结合一空炮合练实例进行了综合预测模型的检验,结果表明所建模型精度较高,有一定的可信度。

Because of information antagonism, warning radar can lose often the detected air targets.Reliable air information is an important bsis of air defense commander for making correct commande. On the basis of describing GM（1,1）grey forecasting model and Verhulst grey forecasting model,according to basic state of detected coordinates of air maneuvring target, the paper puts forward coordinates of air maneuvring target, the paper puts forward a model for forecasting the flight path of air maneuvring target by two models mentioned above, the resultat of verification demonstrates that the established model has relatively high accuracy and certain confidence.