中国货币财政政策有效性的比较检验

A Comparative Test on the Effectiveness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in China

货币政策和财政政策是政府干预宏观经济最重要、使用最频繁的两大工具。改革开放以来,我国政府综合运用货币政策和财政政策调控经济运行,促进经济增长。为检验中国1978～2006年间经济增长中货币政策和财政政策有效性的差异性特征,应用脉冲响应函数研究它们之间的动态特性后发现:无论是短期还是长期,积极货币政策对于经济增长均有正效应,而积极财政政策仅在短期内有效,长期内呈现负效应且随时间推移逐渐显著。积极财政政策长期失效的原因有多方面,主要是财政支出的供给范围不合理和支出管理失控产生的效率损失。

Monetary policy and fiscal policy are the most important and most frequently used policies for the government to interfere the macro-economy. Since the reform and opening up, Chinese government has utilized the monetary and fiscal policies to regulate and control the economic fluctuation to promote economic growth. In order to test the different features between monetary and fiscal policies on China＇s economic growth during 1978-2006, this paper applies the impulse response function to estimate the dynamic characteristics. The results show that active monetary policy has a positive effect on economic growth not only in the short term but also in the long term. However, active fiscal policy can promote the economic growth in the short term, but has a negative effect with time goes. There are many reasons for the fiscal policy to nullify in the long term, mainly including the efficiency loss due to the unreasonable supply scope of government expenditure and the uncontrollable expenditure management.