北京市GDP与居民消费行为的计量经济分析

The Econometric Analysis between Beijing GDP and Consumption Behavior

居民消费在国民收入总量中占有相当大的比重,研究居民消费水平对于把握区域经济的宏观平衡和动态增长具有不可忽视的意义。通过区域居民消费倾向实证分析,能够更好地理解当前区域居民消费结构与消费行为。本文应用计量经济方法对北京市GDP与居民消费行为进行了实证分析,结果表明,影响人们当期消费最主要的因素是收入,但同时消费也受国家政策等因素的影响,收入水平和增长速度直接影响消费需求的增长,进而也会影响整个经济增长的速度。从收入与居民消费动态计量经济学ECM模型可以看出,北京市GDP与居民最终消费存在长期均衡的协整关系,即国内生产总值与消费总额存在着动态均衡机制。

Consumption has a largish proportion in the total national income, and research regarding inhabitant consumption level is of great significance to the macroeconomic balance and dynamic growth of regional economy. Through the empirical analysis of regional consumption tendency, we can understand the current regional consumption structure and consumption behavior in a better way. This paper analyzes the GDP and consumption behavior in Beijing with econometric method. The result indicates that the income is the most important factor to the current consumption and the consumption is also affected by the policy. The income level and the growth rate directly affect the increase in consumption demand, and further affect the economic growth. From the model of ECM between income and consumption, we can find that there are long-run cointegrating relation between Beijing GDP and consumption, i.e. there are the dynamic equilibrium mechanism between the gross domestic product and the total of consumption.