Markov过程理论在对地攻击靶场效能评估中的应用

Application of random Markov process theory to combat effectiveness estimation in absence of air defenses

利用Markov随机过程理论,建立了攻击机对地攻击作战过程的Markov模型,推导了靶场攻击条件下,目标被击毁概率、目标生存概率、任务成功率、完成任务时间等效能指标的解析表达式。通过实例说明了效能指标的计算过程并进行了相关分析。

A Markov model is established to describe a single aircraft attacking a single ground target in the absence of air defense. The analytical expressions of target kill probability and target survival probability are deduced out. The formula for calculating the task success probability and time needed for implementing the task are presented. An example is given for demonstrating the calculation process of the effectiveness indexes with relative analysis.