山东省近55年夏季降水和平均气温的多时间尺度分析

Multiple Temporal Scales Analysis on the Summer Precipitation and Temperature in Shandong Province in Recent 55 Years

利用最近55a山东夏季降水和平均气温资料,统计分析了降水和平均气温的变化特征,并用Meyer小波变换方法,对山东省夏季降水和平均气温进行了分析,发现山东夏季降水呈明显下降趋势,气温略呈上升趋势。小波分析显示两者在中短周期上基本一致,即它们的中短周期基本在11a,5～6a和2～3a左右的时间尺度上变动。而这些基本周期正是太阳黑子活动和海气相互作用的周期,说明山东省夏季降水和平均气温的周期变化主要受太阳黑子活动和海—气相互作用的影响。

Based on the summer temperature and precipitation data in 1951-2005, the change trend of summer temperature and precipitation are analyzed with method of Meyer wavelet transformation. The results as follows： （ 1 ） The precipitation decreases significantly, and the average temperature increase slightly; （2） The summer temperature and precipitation have the accordant middle and short periods.They change with periods of 1 la,5-6a,2-3a, according with that of air-sea interactions and sunspot which have the main effects on the period of the summer temperature and precipitation.