摘要
通过对云南省1981—2003年的交通事故统计数据的分析研究,给出了交通事故死亡人数的预测模型。通过与发达国家类似的交通事故历史数据的对比分析,给出以时间和机动车拥有量为自变量、交通事故死亡人数为因变量的简单预测模型,该模型对2004年的交通事故死亡人数的预测是准确的;同时采用该模型预测了云南省交通事故死亡人数的峰值及其年份。结论指出:基于目前的人、车、路和管理水平及发展趋势,云南省的交通事故死亡人数在2013—2018年之间将达到高峰,高峰时的交通事故死亡人数在5528～7369人之间。
Through the analysis on the traffic accident statistic data in Yunnan province from 1981 to 2003, a forecasting model for traffic accident fatalities is presented. A simple forecasting function, with the time and the vehicles as the independent variables and the traffic accident fatalities as the dependent variable, is established by comparing this data with that from developed countries. The result predicted by this model proves to be accurate in Yunnan province in 2004. Then, this model is again used to forecast the peak value of death fatalities by traffic accidents and its year in Yunnan province. The result is that the peak value is 5 528 to 7 369 fatalities and the year is between 2013 and 2018, if calculated by the current developing trend of traffic.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2007年第7期72-80,共9页
China Safety Science Journal
关键词
交通事故
死亡人数
趋势
预测模型
云南省
traffic accidents
death fatalities
trend
prediction model
Yunnan province
