地下水数值模拟中的参数灵敏度分析

Sensitivity analysis of parameters in numerical simulation of groundwater

将局部灵敏度分析和全局灵敏度分析引入地下水数值模型的参数灵敏度分析中,并以塔里木河下游为例,选取含水层渗透系数、给水度、河床沉积物渗透特性系数及模型输入项的河流水位进行地下水数值模拟中的参数灵敏度分析.分析结果表明,河流水位对地下水数值模型的影响最为显著,而其他参数的影响则相对较小,全局灵敏度分析计算出的参数总灵敏度较小.这说明地下水数值模型比较稳定,可以用于模拟塔里木河下游地下水水位变化情况.

With the lower Tarim River as an example, the local sensitivity analysis and global sensitivity analysis were introduced into parameter sensitivity analysis of groundwater mathematical model, and the permeability coefficient and specific yield of aquifer, the permeability coefficient of riverbed sediment, and the river water level as the input of the model were selected for parameter sensitivity analysis in numerical simulation. The result shows that the model is more sensitive to the river water level than to other parameters. According to the result of global sensitivity analysis, the total sensitivity of the parameters is relative small, thus the groundwater mathematical model is stable. Therefore, the mathematical model can be used to simulate the change of groundwater level of the lower Tarim River.