中国R&D投入与经济增长的协整分析

Co-integration analysis of relationship between R&D expenditure and economic growth in China

采用时间序列动态均衡关系分析方法，选取中国1978～2005年R＆D投入与GDP数据，对中国R＆D投入与GDP变量间进行协整分析、因果关系检验和误差修正模型分析．实证结果表明，中国R＆D投入与经济增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系，但这种均衡关系对当期非均衡误差的自身修正能力较弱，R＆D投入构成经济增长的充分而非必要条件．

Based on the time series dynamic equilibrium analysis method for co-integration analysis, Granger-causality test, and error correction model analysis of the relationship between R＆D expenditure and economic growth in China according to the data of 1978-2005, the dynamic equilibrium relationship between R＆D expenditure and economic growth was revealed. The results indicate that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between R＆D expenditure and economic growth in China; however the equilibrium relationship is of low capability for self-correction of the current nonequilibrium error and R＆D expenditure forms the sufficient but unnecessary conditions for economic growth.