远程空空导弹攻防成功概率研究

Research on Attack-Defense Success Probability for Long-Range Air-to-Air Missiles

攻防成功概率是衡量远程空空导弹武器系统作战效能的关键性指标。在研究被动/主动双模导引头远程空空导弹末制导截获概率模型和载机生存概率模型的基础上,建立了攻防成功概率的计算模型,并以F-16战斗机为打击目标进行了验证,进而根据算例结果分析了诸因素对攻防成功概率的影响,为远程空空导弹的作战效能评估提供了有益的参考。

Attack-defense success probability is the key index in evaluating the combat effectiveness of weapon systems with long-range air-to-air missiles. Based on the research on the terminal guidance acquisition probability model and carrier aircraft survival probability model for long-range air-to-air missiles, this paper established the computational model of attack-defense success probability, and gave an example of verification regarding F-16 as the attack target, and then analyzed the factors that affect the attack-defense success probability according to the resuits of examples. All those can be useful value to combat effectiveness evaluation of long-range air-to-air missiles.