四川水化地震预报思路的发展过程及其发展方向

Developing Process and Direction of the Thinking of Hydrochemical Earthquake Prediction in Sichuan

自1970年四川大邑6.2级地震后,我省开展了水化地震预报的探索。经过20多年的实践和研究,积累了大量的水化观测资料和几十次中强以上地震的成功与失败的预报经验和教训。水化地震预报思路经过了单个异常对应及预报地震、多点多项异常对应及预报地震和“八五”攻关的从异常群体的演变过程提取前兆信息对应及预报地震几个阶段。本文简要回顾了水化地震预报思路的发展过程,列举了各阶段水化异常对应及预报地震的典型震例。针对四川水化地震预报的现存问题,提出了今后努力和发展的方向。

The exploration Of hydrochemical earthquake prediction has developed in our province since 1970 Dayi M6.2 earthquake. After more than 20 yeals' practice and research, large number of bydrochemical observationdata and experience on tens of over moderate earthquakes' prediction have been accumulated. The thinking of hydrochemical earthquake prediction experience several stages such as 'single anomaly response and predicting earthquake', 'multi-point, multinomial anomaly response and predicting earthquake' and 'retrievaling precusory information response and predicting earthquake from the evolution process of anomaly group' which is known as one program of the '8th 5-Year Plan'. The development of the thinking of bydrochemical anomaly response and predicting earthquake are briefly reviewed, and typical examples in various stages are given in the paper. In accordance with the present problems of hydrochemical earthquake prediction is Sichuan, further direction of development is put forward.