水库地震主震发生时间的预测

PREDICTION ABOUT THE MAINSHOCK ORIGIN TIME OF RESERVOIR EARTHQUAKE

水利工程对水库地震的抗震设防要求事先对水库地震进行预测。预测内容包括蓄水后诱发地震的危险性（可能性）、最大震级、最大震的地点、发生时间以及水库地震对场址地震动参数的影响等。除主震时间的预测外，本文第一作者都曾提出过初步的预测方法[1]。本文认为，水库地震前震波速比异常、非线性灰色模型以及前震系列回归等方法，是预测主震时间的有前途的方法。

Reservoir earthquake predicting is required to do a priori by earthquake resistance protection of water conservancy works against reservoir earthquake. The predicting contents include the risk (probability) of induced earthquake after impoundment, maximum magnitude, location and origin time of the mainshock and influence of the earthquake on seismic dynamic parameters etc. The methods of foreshock Vp/Vs ratio anomaly of reservoir earthquake, nonlinear grey system, and foreshock sequence regression etc are considered as those of having a future on the prediction of mainshock origin time.