江苏省耕地面积变化模型的比较分析

Comparative Analysis of the Models of Cultivated Land Change in Jiangsu

采用多元线性回归和灰色动态模型两种建模方法,分别对江苏省耕地面积短期变化进行分析,并比较了不同模型分析的效果。结果表明,两者都可用于预测,多元线性回归模型拟合精度明显好于灰色动态模型,但多元线性回归模型是经过修正的,且对数据要求较高,而灰色动态模型对数据没有特殊要求。

The scale and quantity analysis of cultivated land is the basis in the research on the change rule of land and in the protection of land. In the article with two models of Grey Systematic model and Multiple Linear Regression the change of cultivated land in short period in Jiangsu was analyzed.And based on the history statistical data,the forecast ability of two models was compared. The result showed that the two modes are all predictive,However,Multiple Linear Regression model is the superior in precision to Grey systematic model, but the former was remedied, with the more critical over the data, whereas the later had not any particular requirement on the data.