摘要
为了明确国家或地区战略石油储备天数,在分析世界发生石油生产中断的历史数据的基础上,建立了战略石油储备天数的复合泊松过程的概率模型。把模型计算结果与国际能源机构确定的经合组织石油储备天数的标准及其实际石油储备数据进行对比分析,发现该模型具有相当的合理性,可以作为指导国家或地区进行战略石油储备的理论依据。
To achieve the strategic oil storage days for nation or region, according to analyze the historic data of oil discontinuity, this paper established the probability model of oil discontinuity days based on complex Poisson process. Contrasting the calculating result to the oil storage days decided by IEA and the actual oil storage days in OPEC, we find out that the probability model is in reason considerably. And it can be regarded as the theory to guide strategic oil storage for nation or region.
出处
《数理统计与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2007年第5期852-857,共6页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
关键词
复合泊松过程
战略石油储备
概率模型
complex poisson processing
strategic oil storage
probability model
