马尔可夫过程在医学干预措施成本效用分析中的应用

Application of Markov Process to the Cost-utility Analysis of Medical Intervention Measures

马尔可夫过程(Markov Process)是由一种状态转移至另一种状态的随机过程。本文探讨了医学干预措施成本效用分析中马尔可夫状态转移模型构建和模型参数的确定方法,并以全髋关节置换术为例,将具有吸收状态的离散马尔可夫过程应用于医学干预措施成本效用分析。结果表明,利用模型得出的预测结果与目前的医学认识和临床实际相符,提示应用离散马尔可夫过程预测医学干预措施成本效用是可行的。

Markov is a stochastic process from a state to another state. This paper study the model construction of VIarkov state transfer and the determination of model parameter. The application of discrete Markov process with absorbable state to the cost-utility analysis of medical intervention measures was illustrated with a example of total hip prostheses. The result showed that the forecast result agreed with the current medical knowledge and clinical practice. The study suggested the application of discrete Markov process to forecast the cost and utility analysis of medical intervention measures was feasible.