引入非财务指标的财务危机预警模型初探

Tentative Research for Forecasting Model of Financial Crisis of Introduced Non - financial Indexes

财务危机不仅仅是由于财务活动引起的，非财务活动在某些情况下也会导致财务危机的产生。以2004—2005年部分首次被ST的A股上市公司为研究对象，结合经过无量纲化处理的财务指标和非财务指标，使用主成分分析法和Logit回归建立了财务危机前2年的预警模型。研究显示，引入非财务指标后的财务危机预警模型在一定程度上提高了预测准确率。

Financial crisis is not merely caused by financial activities, but by non -financial activities in certain situations. This paper takes partial special traded listed companies as the research objects, which were specially traded for the first time from 2004 to 2005. By combining standardized financial indexes with non - financial indexes, principal components analytic method and Logit Regression method are used to set up the forecasting model to forecast financial crisis of listed companies in the last 2 years. The research demonstrated that, after introducing the non - financial indexes, forecasting model of financial crisis enhances the forecast accurate rate in the certain degree.