摘要
本文以1978—2005年间中国进口与国内生产总值的年度时间序列为基础,建立了二者之间的误差修正模型,并基于该模型作了Granger因果检验。实证表明,在长期,进口对经济增长存在着单向Granger因果关系;而对此的仔细评估与阐释,则凸显了短期化陷阱与内需不足效应这两个典型经济现象的存在性,其内涵、成因与后果值得高度关注。
Based on Error Correction Model (ECM) and its associated Granger causality test, this paper investigate the interrelationship between import and economic growth in China, by analyzing the yearly data of import and China's GDP during the period of 1978 - 2005. Empirical evidences show that there is only unilateral Granger causality from import to economic growth within the sample range. The succeeding detailed evaluations and explanations reveal the existence of short - termism trap and domestic demand deficiency effect. Since these are two highly typical economic phenomena, their implications, causes and consequences call for serious concerns.