建立中国—东盟自由贸易区对我国农产品贸易和区域农业发展的影响

The Impact of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China's Agricultural International Trade and Its Regional Development in Agriculture

本文利用全球贸易分析模型(GTAP)和中国农业决策支持系统(CHINAGRO)分析了建立中国—东盟自由贸易区CAFTA对我国总体农产品贸易和区域农业发展的影响。研究结果表明:(1)CAFTA将提高中国和东盟贸易增长和资源配置效率,促进双边经济福利增长;(2)建立CAFTA将导致我国的蔬菜、小麦、花卉等产品出口增加,而植物油和糖类产品进口数量会大幅增加;(3)CAFTA对我国不同地区农业生产的影响存在显著差别,特别是对于水果和水稻这些在不同区域存在较大品质差异的产品;总体上来看,CAFTA将使华北、东北以及华东等地区的农业获益,而华南地区的农业将受到负面的冲击,这与多边自由贸易对我国的区域农业发展的影响恰好相反。

By means of the global trade analysis pattern and CHINAGRO, we have, in this article, analyzed the effect of the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on China's agricultural international trade as a whole and on regional agricultural growth. The result of our study indicates that the founding of CAFTA will advance the trade between China and ASEAN and the efficiency of resources allocation and promote the bilateral economic welfare growth, that the institution of CAFTA will lead to increasing China's exports of vegetables, wheat and flowers, and tremendously enhancing China's imports of vegetable oils and sugar products, and that the impact of CAFTA on the agricultural production remarkably varies with China's different areas, especially on the production of such produce as fruits and rice, the quality of which in different areas is quite different. Generally, CAFTA will benefit the agriculture in north, north east and east China, and adversely affect agriculture in south China, which is contrary to impact of multilateral free trade on the agricultural development in China's different areas.