中国中长期人口综合发展战略(2000—2050)

China's Medium-and Long-term Integrated Demographic Development Strategy (2000—2050)

改革开放以来,中国人口转变进入到人口红利期,即劳动年龄人口占总人口的比例超过60%,且不断提高,极大地促进了经济增长;从人口质量上看,中国成功地走出了穷国办大教育的道路,初步实现了从人口大国到人力资源大国的转变。然而到2015年之后人口红利期开始下降,到2035年基本结束,之后形成新的人口负债期,人口老化负担日益加重。因此有必要前瞻性提出中国中长期人口发展战略构想,这是一个统筹考虑人口系统内部数量和质量,统筹考虑人口、资源环境和经济社会发展的综合战略。为了实现2000—2050年中国现代化"三步走"战略目标,作者提出中国人口发展目标分"三步走"的初步设想,为2050年基本实现中国现代化奠定人力资本基础。

Since China introduced reform and opening-up policy, China＇s population has entered a period of demographic dividend, with the proportion of working population exceeding 60% of the total and still on the increase, gave a great impetus to economic growth. Besides, China has successfully found a way for a poor country to develop education, initially realizing the shift from a country with the biggest population to a power with the biggest amount of human resources. However, the demographic dividend period is estimated to decline after 2015 and to end by 2035 before entering into a period of demographic indebtedness, with the burdens of the aged population growing heavier. It is, therefore, necessary to work out a forward-looking medium- and long-term demographic development strategy, which should be an integrated strategy that should take into consideration both quantity and quality of the population as well as integrated development in demography, resources, environment, economy and society. With a view to realizing the ＂three-step＂ strategy in China＇s modernization program for 2000-2050, the author has proposed a three-step framework for the demographic development of China so as to lay the human capital basis for realizing the goal of China＇s modernization program in 2050.