中国保险业中长期增长潜力分析

A Mid-and-Long-Term Growth Potential Analysis of China's Insurance Industry

本文基于市场汇率法和购买力平价法,通过对大量历史数据的分析,探寻"世界保险业增长规律曲线",并以该规律曲线为参照,结合中国国民经济和保险业发展的具体现实,量化分析2006—2020年间中国保险业的中长期增长潜力。基本结论是:在2006—2020年期间,在GDP年均增长7—9%的假设下,中国保险业年均增长率较为可能的浮动区间为9.5—17.6%,其中更为可能的浮动区间为11.8%—14.9%。更直观地说,与同期GDP相比,在2006—2020年期间,中国保险业保持一个比同期GDP高2—4个百分点的增长速度比较容易,保持高4—6个百分点的增长速度也很有可能,但保持高6—9个百分点的增长速度则比较困难,保持高9个百分点以上的增长速度更为困难。

Based on the frames of market exchange rate and purchasing power parity, this paper uses the ＂world insurance growth rule curve＂ in conjunction with current economic data from China＇s national economy and China＇ s insurance industry to quantitatively estimate the growth potential for China＇ s life insurance industry, non-life insurance industry and China＇s insurance industry as a whole during 2006--2020. The basic conclusion is： during the period of 2006--2020, assuming that China＇s GDP grows 7%--9% per year, the possible range for China＇s insurance industry growth rate is 9.5%--17.6%, and the more probable range is 11.8%--14.9%.