能源重化工工业园环境系统动力学仿真与调控

System dynamics simulation and adjustment on environment system of energy and heavy chemical industrial park

以锦界工业园环境系统为对象,在系统结构分析基础上,构建其系统动力学模型,并确定生产性投资比例、科技投资比例、环保投资比例、污水处理投资率、废气处理投资率、固废处理投资率为调控参数进行仿真。结果表明,当生产性投资比例由0.14提高到0.16,科技投资比例由0.02提高到0.04,环保投资比例由0.04提高到0.08,污水处理投资率由0.4下调为0.36,废气处理投资率由0.2提高到0.34,固废处理投资率由0.4下调为0.3时,园区年均工业总产值增长率达到21%,环境相对污染度年均降幅为8.1%,人口年增长率为4.7%,系统达到相对最优状态。因此,锦界工业园在环境管理中应采取以下措施:一是合理的调整生产、科技和环保的投资比例,适当降低生产性投资比例,增加科技投资和环保投资比例;二是合理的调整污水、废气和固废处理的投资比例,加强三废处理的基础设施建设,为构建完整的三废回收和处理系统奠定基础。

Taking the environment system of Jinjie Industrial Park as object, this paper builds its system dynamics model based on structural analysis and chooses six adjustment parameters for simulation, including investment proportion of production （setzl）, investment proportion of science and technology （kjtzl）, investment proportion of environment protection（ hbztzl）, investment ratio of waste water treatment（wstzl）, investment ratio of waste gas treatment （seltzb） and investment ratio of solid waste treatment （gfeltzl）. The simulation results show that, when setzl is changed from 0.14 to 0. 16, kjtzl from 0.02 to 0.04, hbztzl from 0.04 to 0.08, wstzl from 0.4 to 0.36, scltzb from 0.2 to 0.34 and gfeltzl from 0. 4 to 0.3, the average growth rate of the park＇s gross industry production per year will be 21%, the average decrease rate of relative environment pollution degree per year 8.1%, and the average growth rate of population per year 4.7%, which means the system reaches its optimal state. Therefore, at least two important measures of environment management should be taken by JinJie Industry Park. One is to properly decrease production investment proportion and to increase investment proportion of science and technology and environment protection; and the other is to reasonably adjust investment ratio of waste water, gas and solid waste for strengthening relative infrastructure construction, which can be the foundation of collection and treatment system of the ＂three wastes＂.