桂中地区造纸竹材资源供求关系调查研究

Study on Relationship between Supply and Demand of Papermaking Bamboo Material Resource in Central Guilin Area

介绍桂中地区竹子资源概况以及造纸原料竹材的资源与利用现状。采用GM(2,1)动态模型和特尔斐法对区域内杂竹材资源与消耗变化趋势进行预测,结果表明,桂中地区造纸竹材资源丰富,年生产鲜竹能力达130万t以上,而实际年生产量仅25.8万t,供求比例是4.8∶1,资源积压严重;造纸竹材资源仍呈现稳中有升的态势,到2010年前后,区域内造纸竹材资源仍可满足造纸业需求。

The paper introduces general situation of bamboo resources and papermaking bamboo material resources and utilization in central Guilin area.The consumption change tendency of complicated bamboo resources is predicted by GM（2,1） of dynamic model.The result shows that this area is rich in papermaking bamboo material resources,the annual productivity amounts to more than 1300 thousand ton of fresh bamboo but 258 thousand ton actually.The scale of supple and demand is 4.8∶ 1,which results in severe resources overstock.The tendency of papermaking bamboo resources increases stably so that until in the year of 2010 or so the resources in this area still can satisfy the demand of papermaking industry.