中国省区经济增长空间分布动态

Spatial Distribution Dynamics of Provincial Economic Growth in China

采用分布动态方法(MEDD),从省区经济增长空间分布的形状和流动性两方面考察1978-2004年中国省区经济增长空间分布的动态演进,结果表明,中国省区经济增长的空间分布形态经历多极化—收敛—双峰状的变化过程,其中,俱乐部收敛省区内部的经济发展差距由扩大到再次缩小,俱乐部间的发展差距由缩小到再次扩大,说明收敛俱乐部间的经济差距在扩大。1990年后,地区经济增长的活跃性提高;转移概率矩阵、无条件和空间条件动态随机核估计及密度等高线图显示空间相互作用影响着省区经济增长未来的空间分布,空间因素是影响地区经济增长分布的重要因素,相邻地区经济增长互相依赖,因地理位置临近所产生的空间溢出效应促使了相似经济水平地区的空间聚集。

By using the method of MEDD, from two aspects of shape and mobility, this paper explores the evolution of spatial distribution dynamics of provincial economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004. The research results indicate that the shape of provincial economic spatial distribution has changed from stratification to convergence and then to two peaks state in China. Besides the gap among the economic growth levels of provinces within a convergence club has varied from widening to narrowing again, whereas the gap among the economic level of different convergence clubs has varied from narrowing to widening again, indicating that the economic inequities between the two convergence clubs have continue to expand. After the 1990s the regional economic growth became more energetic. Transition matrices, unconditional and space-conditioned dynamic stochastic kernel and contour plots reveal that spatial interactions influence the spatial distribution of provincial economic growth in the future. The spatial context is a very important factor in affecting the distribution of economic growth. It is very likely that spatial proximity stimulates spatial interaction. The economic growth of a region depends on the performance of its neighboring provinces. Provinces with wealthier neighbors have a greater chance to become prosperous. The spatial spillovers from the economic development of provinces having close geographical positions promote provinces with similar economic level to cluster spatially.