福建省入境旅游市场模型的建立与开发对策

Establishment and development of Fujian inbound tourist market model

基于1980-2006年的统计资料,利用Logistic曲线回归的方法,建立了福建入境旅游人数预测模型并预测了未来5年福建入境旅游者的人数,阐明了境外客源市场区域构成,提出了积极开拓入境旅游市场、加大管理力度和宣传力度以及强化风险意识等发展福建入境旅游业的对策与思路。

According to the statistical data from 1980 to 2006, by the method of Logistic curve regression, the prediction model of Fujian inbound tourists numbers has been established and Fujian inbound tourists numbers in the coming five years are predicted. The regional structure of the market of customer resources outside China mainland is elaborated. Accordingly it is proposed to develop inbound tourist market, strengthen management and publicity, and emphasize risk awareness.