摘要
在地面沉降这一复杂系统中,既含有已知的又含有未知的或非确定的信息,可以作为一个灰色系统来研究。本文针对地面沉降的下沉曲线非线性特征,提出用一种基于残差灰色预测模型对地面沉降量时间序列进行研究。结果表明,通过改进后的灰色预测模型,预测精度得到了提高,在沉降量比较大和水准点比较稀少的地区,利用此模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费,并能实时提供地面沉降预警信息。
In the complex system of land subsidence, there are definite and indefinite conditions, and it could be researched as a grey system. The paper aims at the nonlinear characteristics of land subsidence curve, and a residual error modification method is presented based on GM（1,1） to study the time- subsidence sequence. The result shows that residual error modification based on GM （1,1） can raise forecasting precision, it is a practical method to forecast land subsidence. We can use this method to reduce the monitoring fee of land subsidence and provide for the early-warning information timely.
出处
《地质灾害与环境保护》
2007年第3期104-107,共4页
Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation
关键词
灰色预测
残差修正
地面沉降
预测精度
天津市
grey forecasting
residual error modification
land subsidence
forecasting precision
Tianjin city
