云南省能源消耗与经济增长关系的实证研究

Correlation Analysis between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Yunnan Province

根据云南省36年主要年份能源消耗的统计数据以及相应年份人均GDP统计数据,对单位GDP能源消耗与人均GDP之间的相关关系进行了分析,选取相关能耗指标(煤炭消耗量、石油消耗量、天然气消耗量、电力消耗量),建立两者之间的计量模型,并在此基础上分析单位GDP能源消耗与人均GDP增长的关系。经研究发现,云南省单位GDP能源消耗与人均GDP增长呈类似于EKC的倒U型曲线,且当今曲线已过转折点,单位GDP能源消耗随人均GDP增长将持续下降。因此,有必要采取有力措施进一步降低单位GDP能源消耗,倡导"循环经济"、"绿色GDP"等,使曲线走势向更加良好、完善的方向演变。

The thesis analyzed the correlation between per capita GDP and energy consumption basing on the data 36 main years of Yurman Province. Selecting the complete correlation index of energy consume（ the coal consume quantity, petroleum depletion quantity, the natural gas consume quantity,electricity consumption quantity）, established the quadratic model, and analyzed the relationship between unit GDP energy consume index and the growth of per capita GDP. Through research, the autliors found that the relationship between unit GDP energy consumes and economic growths were similar to the invert U curve. The curve had already ordered over the turn nowadays. Unit GDP energy consumption with per capita GDP growth would keep on to descend. Thus, in order to consolidate and enlarge the outcome, we should adopt beneficial measure to lower unit GDP energy consumption, and initiate ＂cycle economy＂ ,＂green GDP＂, making sure the curve＇s tendency towards the mere good and perfect direction.