灰色系统理论在煤矿安全生产状况预测中的应用

Application of the grey system theory for predicting safety andproduction of coal mine

以我国煤矿行业的实际资料为依据,应用灰色系统理论分别建立年产量和百万t死亡率的灰色预测模型,并进行精度检验,预测模型精度较高。用建立的灰色预测模型,对我国煤矿的安全生产状况进行预测,得出我国煤矿年产量和百万t死亡率的变化曲线。结果表明,我国煤矿年产量呈上升趋势,百万t死亡率呈下降趋势,符合我国煤矿行业的大体发展趋势。

On the basis of actual data of coal mines in china, the grey forecasting model for output per year and the grey forecasting model for death rate per million ton are built by using the grey system theory. It is shown that models which are built have good precisions. Safety and production of coal mine in china are forecasted by using grey forecasting models which are built, and a transformation curve of output per year and a transformation curve of death rate per million ton are obtained. The results show that output of coal has an ascending trend, and death rate per million ton has a degressive trend. Which generally tally with development tendency of coal mine in china.