内蒙古人口结构与区域经济耦合的关联分析

Relevancy analysis of the coupling between population structure and regional economy in Inner Mongolia

本文在建立耦合系统评价指标体系的基础上,运用灰色关联分析法,构建了人口结构与区域经济交互作用的关联度模型和耦合度模型,揭示了内蒙古人口结构与区域经济耦合的主要因素及耦合关系,并从时空角度对耦合度的演变规律进行了分析。研究发现,内蒙古人口结构与区域经济系统要素耦合的机制复杂,而且关系密切;耦合度空间分布呈现与人口规模相反的规律,全区可划分为协调、磨合、拮抗和低水平耦合等4种类型。总体而言,内蒙古人口结构与区域经济耦合的空间分布基本以拮抗类型为主、低水平耦合次之,与1990年相比,2000年的耦合度呈现出上升的趋势;耦合度时序变动表现出一定的阶段性和波动性。

Based on previous censuses of Inner Mongolia,spot check of population in several years,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region statistical almanac in several years and related material,the dissertation established an evaluation index to the coupling between population structure and regional economy according to the current development and problems of the region.Using methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis,and grey correlative analysis,the dissertation built a correlation model and a coupling model of the interaction between population structure and regional economy of Inner Mongolia.It analyzed the coupling between population structure and regional economy of Inner Mongolia,the static space distribution of the coupling of counties in Inner Mongolia in 2000,the dynamic contrast of distribution in 1990 and 2000 and the evolving rule of the coupling from 1993 to 2004 in Inner Mongolia.The results show,that the coupling mechanism between population structure and components of regional economy is sophisticated,population structure is closely connected with the development of regional economy in Inner Mongolia;but the coupling distribution degree between population structure and regional economy of Inner Mongolia presents an inverse law to population scale.Inner Mongolia can be divided into four types： harmony,amelioration,conflict and low-level coupling.In general,amelioration predominates,followed by low-level coupling,compared 2000 with 1990,the coupling degree increases dynamically;and the sequential change of the coupling degree between population structure and regional economy of Inner Mongolia present different phases and undulations.