摘要
应用HP和BP两种滤波法,分析实际GDP与宏观变量之间的协同变动,结果发现在产出、消费、投资、财政支出等实际因素方面,我国与工业化国家的周期性表现是较为一致的,但在价格、通货膨胀、货币等名义因素上,周期性表现则差异很大。实际因素周期性表现的相似性说明了技术冲击对经济周期有着重要的影响,而名义因素周期性表现的差异说明统一的经济周期模型是不存在的。
This paper studies the stylized facts about China＇ s macroeconomic fluctuations in market-economy regime. HP and BP Filters are used to analyze the co-movement between real GDP and a large group of macroeconomic variables. The results point to many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in industrial countries and China （some real factors as outcome, consumption, investment and fiscal expenditures） and some important differences （some nominal factors as prices, inflation and money）. Their robustness is examined using different de-trending procedures.
出处
《河北经贸大学学报》
2007年第5期1-6,共6页
Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business
关键词
经济周期
特征事实
协同变动
business cycle
stylized facts
co-movement
