基于直觉模糊推理的威胁评估方法

Techniques for Threat Assessment Based on Intuitionistic Fuzzy Reasoning

该文针对威胁评估问题,提出一种基于直觉模糊推理的评估方法。首先,分析了联合防空作战中空天来袭目标影响威胁评估的主要因素、威胁评估的不确定性,以及现有威胁评估方法的特点与局限性,建立了威胁程度等级划分的量化模型。其次,设计了系统状态变量的属性函数,讨论了在模糊化策略方面对输入变量进行的量化和量程变换方法。再次,建立了系统推理规则,设计了推理算法和清晰化算法,分析了规则库中所包含规则的完备性、互作用性和相容性,给出了规则库的检验方法。最后,以20批典型目标的威胁评估实例,验证了方法的有效性。

To the questions of Threat Assessment （TA）, a technique for TA based on intuitionistic fuzzy reasoning is proposed. First, the major factors of effects of attacking targets from space or air on TA in joint air defense operations, nondeterminacy to TA, and the properties and vulnerabilities of the existing TA methods are analyzed. A model for TA measurement rank of threat degree is exposed. Then, the membership and nonmembership functions for input/output state variables are devised. The methods for quantification and measurement transformation to input variables in fuzzy strategy are addressed. The inference rules of the system are constructed with algorithms for reasoning and defuzzification devised. Subsequently, completeness and interactivity and consistency of rules contained in the rulebase are checked with a verification method to the rulebase presented. Finally, the validity is checked by providing TA instances with 20 typical targets.