未来百年烟台沿海相对海平面变化趋势与幅度的探讨

Study on the Trends and Extent of Relative Sea-level Changes in Yantai for the next Century

依据1992年政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)确定的海平面上升最佳估计,对未来百年烟台沿海相对海平面变化趋势与幅度进行了探讨,预测不同时段的上升幅度分别为15～19cm(2030年),20～25cm(2050年),27～35cm(2080年),35～45cm(2100年)。相对海平面上升对烟台沿海海岸环境与城市发展将产生重要影响.预测结果可供有关部门制定长远规划时参考。

Based on the realistic estimation of sea-level rising for the next century by IPCC (1992) t the relative sea-level changes in Yantai for the 21st century have been discussed . The rise trends of relative sea-level in defferent periods are estimated: 15-19cm by the year of 2030, 20-25cm by the year of 2050, 27-35cm by the year of 2080, and 35-45cm by the year of 2100 . The rise of relative sea-level will seriously affect the coastal environment and urban development. The estimation of relative sea-level rising in Yantai can serve as a reference when relative government departments make out future policies.