“无聊”的长尾

The'boring'long tail

随着中产阶级队伍的不断壮大,人们花在户外的时间也呈现出不断延长的趋势。中国户外广告市场的规模随之也将从2003年的130亿元人民币增加到2008年的340亿元人民币,年均复合增长率为21%。这一比例超过了中国广告行业整体的成长速度。目前总额还不到300亿元人民币的中国户外广告市场上却活跃着10000多家广告企业,市场的集中程度非常低。但是在机场、酒店、超市、地铁、医院等特定细分市场,却已经开始呈现出广告资源向少数领导型企业集中的趋势,寡头垄断雏形已经逐渐清晰起来。一个有意思的现象是,户外各个细分市场上的领导者几乎都获得了资本的青睐和支持。更有甚者,在VC、PE等各类私有股权资本的推动下,玺诚传媒、航美传媒等IPO的步伐开始变得越来越稳健。一旦玺诚们上市的计划得以如期实现,户外广告市场的大规模整合就将难以避免。

This is a market where the time factor is weighted.With the continuous expansion of the middle-class population,people tend to spend more and more time doing outdoor activities.Obviously,the outdoor advertising industry will benefit most directly from such trend. According to the forecast by Morgan Stanley's research,the market size for China's outdoor advertising industry will grow up to RMB34 billion in 2008 from RMB13 billion in 2003,and the average annual compound growth rate will stand at 21%. Such growth rate will exceed the growth rate for China's overall advertising industry.CTR predicted that in 2007,the growth rate for China's advertising industry would reach 20%. Focus Media's successful public listing and its rising profit and share price have not only won the people's trust in its advertising mode,but opened the door to many of its imitators. All of a sudden,the school campus,the airport,the subway,the bus,the hotel,the golf course,the gymnasium,the supermarket,the hospital and even the public toilet are becoming the targets which these late-coming imitators are scrambling to grab for.