驾驶员车祸危险因素的Logistic回归分析

STUDY ON RISK FACTORS FOR TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN DRIVERS USING LOGISTIC MODEL

本文对１１３名参加１９９３年上海市全市驾驶员体检的司机进行了随访。随访结果经单因素和多因素Ｌｏ－ｇｉｓｔｉｃ回归分析初步显示，除驾驶车型外，男性、正中神经传导速度慢、驾龄短和饮酒为驾驶员车祸危险因素。据此提示，饮酒、驾龄短的司机为车祸易发人群，须加强对该亚人群的管理，以减少车祸的发生。

To study the risk factors for traffic accident in drivers the logistic model was used. A follow up study was conducted in 113 drivers who took part in the physical examination of drivers of Shanghai in 1993. The follow up data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate unconditional logistic regression model. The results revealed preliminarily that besides the type of automobiles driven,male sex, lower conductive velocity of median nerve, shorter age of driving and alcohol drinking are risk factors for traffic accidents. The drivers, who have these risk factors, are liable to traffic accidents. The rate of traffic accidents would decline if effective strict administration to the drivers is given.