从需求偏好相似理论预测中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易前景

The Trade Foreground of CAFTA Forecasted with the Theory of Demand Preference Similarity

文章用数学模型推理论证了需求偏好相似理论适用于所有收入水平相似国家之间的贸易,从而将需求偏好相似理论的应用拓展到了发展中国家之间的贸易,并进一步用中国的对外贸易数据对此结论进行实证检验,得出需求偏好相似理论与中国的对外贸易结构是相符的,最后以需求偏好相似理论为切入点,预测中国-东盟自由贸易区的贸易前景。

This paper proves that the Theory of Demand Preference Similarity is applicable to the trade between nations which have similar GNI per capital with mathematical model. Accordingly it is applicable to the trade between developing countries which have similar GNI per capital, and these nations which have upper inner-industrial trade level. Then the author uses China＇s international trade data to verify it, and it is proved that the Theory of Demand Preference Similarity is also applicable to the international trade of China. In the end, the theory is used to forecast the trade foreground of CAFTA.