影响汇率制度选择的政治因素——东亚和拉美新兴市场国家的实证分析

Political Determinant in Foreign Exchange Regime:an Empirical Study of East Asian and Latin American Economies

本文运用新政治经济学的方法分析了利益集团、民主化程度、选举制度和政党等政治因素对新兴市场国家汇率制度选择的影响,并选取韩国、印尼、泰国、马来西亚、智利和巴西6个东亚和拉美具有代表性的新兴市场国家,运用1990￣2005年的相关数据,通过建立计量经济学模型,对其汇率制度选择的政治因素进行了实证分析。

This paper utilizes the new political economy method, and analyzes that the political factors, such as interest groups, democracy ,electoral systems and political parties, have impacts on the choice of the exchange rate regime in emerging market countries. And we also use the econometric model and other empirical analysis to test the hypotheses relating the political factors to exchange rate regime choice on a sample of six emerging market countries （Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Chile and Brazil） over the period 1990-2005.