中国因素催涨BDI指数

Chinese elements boost increase of BDI

2007年9月7日，BDI指数高位突破了8400点，国际干散货海运市场持续强劲攀升的问题引起了业内外人士的广泛关注。之所以引人注目，主要在于三个特点：1．增幅大；2．持续时间长；3．市场表现明显区别于集装箱和油轮运输市场。目前的市场表现，只有40年前的60年代可以相提并论，如果说最近几年国际干散货海运市场的出色表现，主要功劳在于“中国因素”，那么上世纪60年代航运市场的繁荣则可归因于“日本因素”。

On Sept.7, 2007, BDI exceeded 8,400 points. The continuous growth of international dry and bulk cargo shipping market has raised great concerns of industry insiders and outsiders. As the growth is large, the lasting time is long and the market performance of the market is greatly different with container and oil tanker transport market, the situation has raised great concerns of the people. The market performance can be only matched with that in 1960s. If outstanding market performance of international dry and bulk cargo shipping market in recent few years can be attributed to Chinese elements, then the prosperity of shipping industry in 1960s shall be attributed to Japanese elements. There is one common point. Japan in 1960s and China in 21st century were all in the period where heavy chemical industry had developed rapidly. They have large and continuous demands for raw materials and energies. As a result, since 2003 till now, international dry and bulk cargo shipping market has developed favorably. Such situation will last for a long period of time in the future. However, the market trend at present is different with that in 1960s. Growth of the market at present is significantly larger than that in 1960s.