对我国潜在经济增长率的测算——基于二元结构奥肯定律的实证分析

The Calculation of China's Potential Growth Rate:Based on Okun's Law of Dual-economy

本文从理论上推导出二元社会下的奥肯定律,以及二元社会下潜在经济增长率的定义,并在此基础上用实际数据对中国奥肯定律进行了测算,同时得到了我国1986～2004年间的潜在经济增长率。测算结果显示,我国近年来的经济增长水平没有超过潜在增长率,但潜在增长率对我国而言并不是一个好的目标,应努力阻止实际增长率达到其潜在的水平,并在控制经济增长速度的同时,要努力改变目前的经济增长方式。

The paper deduces the Okun＇s Law for a dualistic economy, and then based on the Law, using Chinese data to calculate it＇s potential growth rate. According to the results, the paper draws unusual conclusions： firstly, in the recent years China＇s growth rate is not beyond it＇s potential level. But secondly, the potential growth level is not a good state for China, if she keeped increasing on the cureent growth road. So at last, China should tries to prvent it＇s real growth rate from reaching it＇s potential one, and at same time tries it＇s best to change the current growth method.