基于面板协整方法的外资与外贸关系研究

Research on Relationship between FDI and Foreign Trade Based on Panel Co-integration Method

本文利用近年来最新发展起来的面板单位根及面板协整时间序列方法,对外资与中国外贸之间的关系进行了实证检验。与以往研究中普遍采用的单一截面时序分析方法相比,基于面板数据的时序方法不仅增加了数据自由度,而且综合了截面间信息,因而检验结果具有更高的势(power)值和稳健性。检验结果表明,外资与中国外贸之间存在着较为明显的互补关系。最后,本文对形成这一结果的原因作了简要说明,并指出了该结论对于政策制定的重要含义。

Compared to traditional time series methods, panel unit root and cointegration test, developed recently by Levin et al. , （2002）, Pedroni （1999）, etc. , have the advantage of higher power and more robust conclusion. Employing these panel methods, we re-estimate the relationship between FDI and Chinese foreign trade, with findings revealing a complementation relation. Furthermore, this conclusion as well as its policy implication are briefly discussed.