中国钢铁行业产出波动中的供给冲击影响研究

The Impact of Supply Shocks on the Fluctuation of Steel Industrial Output

文章以真实经济周期理论为背景,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术,分析钢铁行业各供给要素对行业产出的传递效应以及供给要素对产出的贡献程度,以此来研究供给冲击对钢铁行业产量波动的影响。研究结果表明,技术进步是引发钢铁产出波动最重要的因素,且具有持续的影响;固定资产投资对产出波动影响持续的时间大约为8年左右;原材料价格上涨并没有给产出带来预期中的负向影响;从业人员规模对产出波动的影响微弱,几乎可以忽略不计。

The paper takes the real business-cycles theory as theoretical background, applies impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the transmission effects and contribution degree of supply elements of steel industrial to output, and studies the impact of supply shocks on the fluctuation of steel industrial output. The results show that technological progress is the most important triggered factor of steel output volatility, and its has continuing impact on output; Fixed assets investment will continues impact on output about 8 years; The positive effect of rising prices of raw materials which contrary to our predictions; employees affected on fluctuations almost be ignored.