震后预报的某些研究

ON PREDICTION STUDY AFTER MAINSHOCKS

通过研究华北北部中强以上地震震后地震活动，地形变、地电阻率、水化学和水位变化特征，给出了各单项方法识别震后效应与新地震异常的标志。为了综合判别震后短临异常变化是震后效应或新异常，研制了一套综合识别计算机程序系统，该系统考虑了已发生的强震序列类型，地震活动背景特征以及强震前后前兆短临异常变化形态，充分利用专家的知识与经验进行推理和判断。通过运行典型事例表明该系统功能较强，使用方便。系统的实现是专家系统用于识别震后效应和新地震异常，进行震后地震预报的一次尝试。

Some identification marks of the effect and new anomalies after mainshocks are giv-en in this paper by studying the seismicity pattern, crustal deformation, groundresistivity and variation of ground water for moderate or strong earthquakes in NorthChina. A computer software system is investigated to identify comprehensively the effect or new anomaly after mainshocks. Many factors are considered, i. e. strongearthquake sequence type, seismicity background, and short-term and imminent vari-ations of precursors before and after mainshocks in this system, using seismologists'knowledge and experience. Operation of the system with typical events shows that thesystem can be used to identify the effect and new anomaly. This is the first time that theexpert system is used for the prediction after earthquakes.