强震预报的连续性方法与丽江7.0级地震预报

CONTINUITY METHOD OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND PREDICTION OF THE M 7.0 LIJIANG EARTHQAKE

作者继《云南强震活动的连续性探讨》后，提出云南强震活动的连续性方法：即一次强震前４个月内的中等地震丛集区几何中心１５０公里内地区，在经过数月至数年的孕育后将演变成强震发生区。据此连续性方法，１９９３年１月２７日普洱６３级地震后即在《震情研究》上预报“未来３—５年省内的７级大震将发生在永胜期纳（２６４°Ｎ，１００６°Ｅ）附近地区。另外，缅甸（２２５°Ｎ，９８°Ｅ）也可能发生７—８级大震”。上述两个预报参考点附近１３０公里内于１９９５年７月和１９９６年２月分别发生了缅甸７３级和丽江７０级地震。强震活动的连续性方法１９８７年总结应用以来，云南及边界符合判定条件的丛集区６个，至今在参考点１３０公里内都已发生过Ｍ＞６地震。方法无虚报，对应率６／６，漏报普洱６３级地震，方法概括率６／７。云南强震活动的连续性方法具有预测地点的精确度达到国家地震局有关规定，强度、时间预报指标明确。

The continutiy method of strong seismicity, namely, the area within 150 Km away from the geometric center of crowded region of medium events in four months before strong event will evaluate to form the occurrence area of the strong event after preparation from a few months to years, is offered followed by the paper, Approach to Continuity of Strong Seismicity in Yunnan, by the author. Using the continuity method, it can be determined that a great earthquake of M 7 in Yunnan Province would occur near Qina in Yongsheng (26 4°N, 100 6°E) and a great earthquake of M 7-8 also might occur in Burma (22 5°N, 98°E) in 3-5 years after the Puer earthquake with M 6.3 on Jan. 27, 1993. The two earthquakes, the Burma earthquake of M 7.3 and the Lijiang earthquake of M 7.0 have occurred within 130 Km near above two prediction reference points in July, 1995 and in February, 1996 respectively. Since the continuity method of strong seismicity was summarized and used, events with M 6 have occurred all within 130 Km near the reference points in the six crowded regions in Yunnan and its borders in accordance with judgment conditions. The method has the corresponding rate of 6/6, without false prediction and the summarizing rate of 6/7, for failure prediction of the Puer earthquake of M 6 3 The precision of location prediction for the continuity method of strong seismicity in Yunnan has come up to relative requirements of State Seismological Bureau and the method has define index of continuity and is easy to operate.