慢性阻塞性肺病呼吸衰竭患者机械通气预后预测模型研究

To study prognostic model in mechanical ventilation patients of respiratory failure with COPD

目的探讨判断慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)呼吸衰竭患者机械通气预后的预测模型。方法将153例研究对象按死亡与否分为病例组和对照组,分别记录患者入院时的状态、辅助检查以及治疗过程。结果逐步Logistic回归建立的COPD呼吸衰竭患者机械通气预后预测模型有统计学意义,模型预测的灵敏度92.0%,特异度84.6%,模型预测与实际预后情况的符合率为88.2%。结论使用Logistic模型预测COPD呼吸衰竭患者机械通气的预后(死亡概率)具有可行性。

Objective To study predictive model in mechanical ventilation patients of respiratory failure with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease （COPD）. Method The 153 patients were divided into the survival group and the death group. The state of the patients admitted into hospital, accessory examination, treatment process were recorded. Results Predictive model in mechanical ventilation patients of respiratory failure with COPD was established by stepwise logistic regression. The predictive sensitivity was 92.0%, specificity was 84. 6%. The prediction result was consistent with actual prognosis information, coincidence rate was 88.2%. Conclusion It is feasible to predict the prognosis of mechanical ventilation patients of respiratory failure with COPD by Logistic model.