农户消费行为两阶段LES-AIDS模型分析——基于陕西省农村住户的微观实证

A Two-Stage LES-AIDS Modeling Analysis of Rural Household Demand Behavior:Micro-data Evidence from Shanxi Province,China

由于人口规模的原因,农村住户食品消费的变化对中国和世界食品市场均有较大影响。文章采用LES-AIDS模型和国家统计局陕西省农调队2005年农户微观调查数据,建立了两阶段预算需求系统估计农户总消费需求和农户9种食品项目的消费需求。研究发现,食品、衣着、燃料、住房和耐用消费品及其他均缺乏价格弹性,住房和耐用消费品及其他支出弹性大于1仍然属于奢侈品,食品和衣着消费是必需品;在食品内部消费中,价格弹性范围是-0.942～-0.362,牛肉、猪肉、家禽的支出弹性较高,粮食、蔬菜、糖的支出弹性较低,住房对农户食品消费有明显的挤出效应,农户自身特征变量对农户消费模式影响显著,不同收入组农户食品消费结构有明显差异。

In this paper we estimate rural household aggregate expenditure and food demand for nine commodities using a two-stage LES-AIDS model and Rural Households ' Micro-data from Shanxi Province in 2005.The results indicate that for commodity groups(food,clothing,fuel,housing,and other commodities),demand is price-inelastic.Housing and other commodities are luxury goods,while clothing and food are necessities.Within the food group,price elasticities range from-0.942 to-0.362.Expenditure elasticities are lower for grains,sugar and vegetables and higher for pork,beef,and poultry.This study also finds evidence of a house-building squeeze effect on food consumption and household characteristic variables significant effect on food consumption pattern.On the basis of results,we summarize conclusions and policy implications.