蚜传烟草花叶病流行规律的探讨 Ⅰ.田间病株率与烟蚜关系模拟

THE STUDIES OF EPIDEMIC DYNAMICS OF TOBA-CCO MOSIC DISEASE TRANSMITTED BY APHIDS Ⅰ. DYNAMIC MODEL OF DAILY INFECTION RATE AND ITS RELATION WITH MIGRATORY APHIDS

通过绿色诱盘测定迁飞着落蚜虫动态来研究迁飞传毒蚜虫与烟草黄瓜花叶病毒病株率日变化率的关系 ,在概率分析与统计拟合分析的基础上 ,提出了蚜传烟草花叶病具时滞的田间病株日增长率与烟蚜关系模型—— PHYCMV模型 .利用该模型对湖南的 3个地点进行模型拟合检验 ,平均准确率在 90 %以上 .该模型的建立 ,可以通过当时田间的有翅蚜量和田间病株率来预测 12d之后田间病株率的增加值 .

The Green pan traps have been used to estimate the number of aphids alighsing on tobacco.A dynamic model(PHYCMV) on daily increase rate of disease plants and number of migratory aphids has been deduced based on statistical analysis.By simulating the development of disease incidence in three plots in Hunan as the model,the mean accuracy of all simulating tests is greater than 90%. Based on the model,the increase rate of the diseased plants in the next 12 days is predicated by the numbers of pteroaphids and the rate of diseased plants in the field at that time.