福建省龙海市稻田高产优质高效种植结构的优化

Optimization of cropping structure of better quality, higher yield and greater efficiency of paddy field in Longhai City, Fujian Province

采用模型群的方法，对福建省龙海市种植结构的一些主要参数进行ＧＭ（１，１）模型预测，建立以时间为自变量的时变参数预测趋势方程，然后将参数趋势方程与多目标线性规划模型相联接，构造出预测型多目标线性规划模型群．结果表明：在当前增加蔬菜的种植面积能使综合效益提高；但到２０００年，由于人口增加、耕地面积减少，粮食和蔬菜需求压力加大．为保证粮菜供给，在种植结构上应增大粮食和蔬菜的种植面积。

By using the GM(1,1) model, the calculable equation of some parameters of cropping structure in Longhai City, Fujian Province, which would be changed according to the deferral of the time, was set up. Combining the calculable equation with the multi objective linear programming, a calculable multi objective linear programming model was attained. The result suggested that, at present, by increasing cultivated area of the vegetables, comprehensive efficiency can be raised. But up to 2000, with the increasing of population and decreasing of the field, the cultivated area of the cereals and vegetables should meet the demand of the society, so the area of the other crops should be reduced relatively.