我国财政政策变迁的路径依赖及其原因阐释

Analysis on Path Dependence in Change of China's Fiscal Policy

财政政策作为一种政府主导的制度安排,其变迁的方向不是随机的,而是存在着路径依赖。20世纪90年代以来,我国的财政政策变迁虽说是基于经济发展周期和宏观调控目标所作的阶段性调整,但在一定程度上具有强调收入功能、对宏观经济波动适度调节、依赖国债和财政赤字的路径依赖特征。分析表明,我国财政政策变迁形成路径依赖的原因在于政府对财政目标的偏好与财政压力的叠加影响、政府主导的财政政策博弈均衡和较高的政策变迁成本的影响。

As a government-led system arrangement, the direction of fiscal policy change is not random, but path-dependent. Since 1990s, to a certain extent, the change of China＇s fiscal policy has been the path-dependent feature of concerning revenue -oriented function, regulating macroeconomic fluctuations moderately, depending on national debt and the fiscal deficit, although it is gradual adjustment based on the economic development cycle and the goals of macro-control. Analysis shows that the reasons of path-dependence in change of China＇s fiscal policy include the mutual influence of the government preference to fiscal goal and the fiscal pressure, the equilibrium of government-led fiscal policy game and the effect of the cost of policy change.