大气颗粒物污染与心血管疾病死亡的病例交叉研究

The case-crossover studies of air particulate matter pollution and cardiovascular disease death

为评价大气颗粒物污染对人群心血管疾病死亡的急性效应,应用时间分层的病例交叉设计,分析了杭州市2002～2004年间大气可吸入颗粒物(PM10)日平均浓度短期增加与人群每日心血管疾病死亡的关系,同时分析了其他气态污染物(NO2和SO2)的急性健康效应.结果表明,调整气象因素后单污染物模型显示,滞后期为2d,PM10、SO2、NO2日平均浓度每增加10μg/m3与人群心血管疾病死亡的比值比(OR)分别为1.006[95%可信区间(CI):1.003～1.009],1.017(95%CI:1.007～1.028)和1.020(95%CI:1.009～1.032).多污染物模型中,PM10受到SO2影响,效应估计值略有下降,OR值为1.004(95%CI:1.000～1.009).其他污染物效应则无统计学意义.

For assessing the acute effect of air particulate matter （PM10） pollution on the crowd death of cardiovascular diseases（CVD）; using time-stratified case-crossover design, the relation of air absorbable PM10 daily average concentration short-time increase with the CVD daily mortality of 2002-2004 years in Hangzhou City was analyzed, meanwhile, the acute health effect of other gaseous pollutants （SO2 and NO2） was analyzed. After being adjusted for meteorological factors, the single-pollutant models showed that an increase of 10μg/m^3 in PM10, SO2 and NO2 2d before was associated with 0.61%（95% CI： 0.28%～0.94%）, 1.73%（95% CI： 0.68%～2.79%） and 2.02%（95% CI： 0.85%～3.20%） increase in the CVD mortality respectively. In multi-pollutant models, PM10 did remain the short-term effect though the estimate seemed to be less after being adjusted for SO2, while other co-pollutants had no stastisticaily significant effect on cardiovascular deaths.