进口LNG产业链下游环节对供气成本的影响

INFLUENCE OF DOWNSTREAM CHAIN COST ON THE TOTAL EXPENDITURE OF THE IMPORTED LNG

为了澄清"天然气终端用户价格会随国际市场价格上涨而成比例增长"的认识误区,分析了LNG产业链各环节的费用对最终供气成本的影响。结果表明,由于下游各个环节的费用相对稳定,使最终供气成本增加幅度小于国际贸易价格(即离岸价)上涨的幅度。从模拟计算结果看出:若离岸价上涨50%,最终供气成本只增加1/3;同时下游各个环节的成本占总成本的比率由35%降低为26%。充分利用LNG的冷能和尽可能分离出湿气中所含的轻烃,可使下游环节成本进一步降低。因此,应积极进口LNG,采取措施进一步降低成本,做好市场的开拓工作。

In order to clear the prevailing misunderstanding that the end-user's gas price will increase proportionally by the global gas price, this paper analyzed in detail how LNG chain cost affects the final gas price on customers. The analysis showed that because downstream chain charges at relatively stable fees, the augment of final gas cost is less than that of LNG's global FOB price. Through simulation, the calculation results showed that if FOB increased by 50%, the final gas cost would only increase by 1/3, while downstream chain cost will account for from the former 35% to present 26% of the total cost. If cold energy of the imported LNG is taken full use of and more light hydrocarbons are separated from the wet gas, the downstream chain cost will be surely reduced to a much higher degree. Therefore, this paper suggests China should import more LNG at the same time taking positive measures to decrease the costs so as to develop a better LNG market.