摘要
与其它众多关于成海的文章、图书和资料有所不同,本文重点阐述了中亚的现状:成海已不复往日繁荣景象。这个湖泊已经死去,湖床上现存的是另外一个成海:目前成海水体被分割为3部分,其中一部分正被有目的恢复,水位逐渐升高(小成海),另外两部分水体的水位虽持续下降,但边界仍然相连(西部大成海和东部大成海)。1960年成海的水位是海平面以上53m。到2006年水位下降到海平面以上23～30m。这并非计算机模拟的情景,而是过去几十年内环境不断恶化的现实,其主要因素是人类活动的干扰。尽管意见并非完全统一,我们认为对剩余大成海的拯救需要全球的努力,更需要该地区的政府和人民付出巨大牺牲,以使大成海恢复到可接受水平,因为阿姆河三角洲的年径流量已经锐减到几十年前的1/10以下。将成海列为世界遗产有助于大成海的恢复努力。
The thesis of this article is quite different from many other theses of papers, books,and articles on the Aral Sea.It is meant to purposely highlight the reality of the situation in Central Asia:the Aral Sea that was once a thriving body of water is no more.That sea is dead.What does exist in its place are the Aral seas:there are in essence three bodies of water,one of which is being purposefully restored and its level is rising (the Little Aral),and two others which are still marginally connected,although they continue to decline in level (the Big Aral West and the Big Aral East).In 1960 the level of the sea was about 53 m above sea level.By 2006 the level had dropped by 23 m to 30 m above sea level.This was not a scenario generated by a computer model.It was a process of environmental degradation played out in real life in a matter of a few decades,primarily as a result of human activities.Despite wishes and words to the contrary,it will take a heroic global effort to save what remains of the Big Aral.It would also take a significant degree of sacrifice by people and governments in the region to restore the Big Aral to an acceptable level,given that the annual rate of flow reaching the Amudarya River delta is less than a 10th of what it was several decades ago.Conferring World Heritage status to the Aral Sea(s) could spark restoration efforts for the Big Aral.
